Risk assessment plan Math Problem Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 4750 words

Risk assessment plan - Math Problem Example The paper tells that in coming up with a risk management plan, there are several steps involved. The first step is identifying the risk factors involved. In this stage, the event, probability, impact, contingency, reduction and exposure is established. The event simply means an act or incidence that might happen, probability defines the likelihood of an event occurring, impact is the consequence of an event happening. Mitigation happens to be how much the probability of an event may be reduced. Reduction is represented mathematically as the product of mitigation and contingency, whereas exposure is the result of reduction subtracted from risk. In the initial steps, the project's risk management team has to identify the risks as well as their probabilities and consequences. The risks and threats are then analyzed and a risk profile created depending on the consequence and likelihood of occurrence. The threats and risks that are involved in this project may be subdivide into three main categories based on the entity the most impact is felt. The divisions may be environmental, personnel and the public. The contractor may have to execute his task with the railway being in use. Rubble and materials used overhead are a threat to the public, while the running railway is a risk to the experts on the project. Using the profiling, collapse of the bridge during construction may be catastrophic, yet rare thus falling in the high-risk category of the assessment profile. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) or quantitative risk analysis (QRA) or probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) is one of the most used methods of analysing risk in project development and operation (Bedford & Cooke, 2001, p. 210). The use of this technique supports and validates the improvement of control and mitigation measures against threats. Incorporating probability in the project risk management gives the problem a wider scope and allows the stakeholders a better grasp of uncertainty and the need to impr ove on the risk control measures chosen for a given project. Incorporating probability in the development process allows in the assessment of what may happen, its likelihood and the possible consequences in the case of its occurrence. The works of Kaplan and Garrick in defining uncertainties and risk in mathematical terms aids in programming. The definition of risk as a set of scenarios Si, each with a probability Pi and a consequence Xi, generate a risk curve based on the increase or decrease in severity (Goodwin & Wright, 2003, p. 49). From this, programmers can assess inputs through the variations of the severity, consequence and frequency. The Scenario represents the probabilistic sample space in which event is contained (both favourable and unfavourable) each with a chance of occurring. However, in the probabilistic equations, the chances might be equal or biased; in the risk, assessment equality of the scenarios is hard to come by. The chances of occurrence in pure probability are equated to frequency in risk management. The ideology behind introducing the probability of frequency allows the risk analysis to be conducted based on empirical data. If a given project, in a given period, suffers a number of threats and risks the probability of a certain threat can be equated to the number of times it has